Event Recap: Checking in on the Social Security & Medicare Trust Funds
On June 10, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget hosted an online webinar, Checking in on the Social Security & Medicare Trust Funds. The event convened experts to discuss the conclusions of the 2026 Social Security and Medicare Trustees' Reports.
Watch the video below:
Karen Glenn, the Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration, gave the keynote presentation. Glenn walked through the results of the 2026 Social Security Trustees' Report, which projected that Social Security's retirement trust fund will go insolvent in six years, in late 2032, and that the combined program's actuarial deficit grew 16% from 3.82% of taxable payroll in last year’s report to 4.42%. Glenn explained that the changes in the Trustees' projections were partly the result of lower assumed birth rates and immigration levels and the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which reduced projected revenues from income taxation of Social Security benefits.
The event then moved into a discussion on the reports and possible solutions, moderated by Marc Goldwein, the Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Anna Bonelli, the Committee's Director of Health Policy, discussed the results of the 2026 Medicare Trustees' Report, which estimated that the Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund would go insolvent just half a year later than Social Security’s retirement fund, in 2033. Bonelli explained that the insolvency of Medicare’s hospital fund would necessitate an 11% cut in program spending, which could threaten retirees’ access to health care by causing Medicare to delay or deny payments to health care providers.
Mark Sarney, the Committee’s Director of Social Security Policy, followed Bonelli’s discussion by highlighting the results of the Committee’s recently released No State Spared report, which mapped the impact of Social Security’s insolvency across the 50 states and Washington, D.C. The report estimated that, nationally, the average retiree would lose $500 in monthly benefits if a benefit cut of a similar magnitude as found in the 2026 Trustees’ Reports was imposed today.
The participants followed this discussion with suggestions of possible solutions. Bonelli emphasized that there are many options for increasing savings in the Medicare program, and suggested reforming reimbursements to health care providers. Sarney explained that a Six Figure Limit or a COLA Cap on Social Security benefits could close significant shares of Social Security’s solvency gap by reducing payments to the wealthiest retirees. An Employer Compensation Tax was also mentioned as a solution that could close up to two thirds of Social Security’s and up to half of Medicare’s solvency gaps.
The Committee thanks all who attended and made the event such a success.
