Trump CEA Projections Tracker

Before the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) released economic and fiscal projections showing considerable expected economic and budgetary improvements. Importantly, these estimates are far more optimistic than those of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and other credible estimates.

To compare these projections to future outcomes, the below tracker maps each of CEA’s predictions¹ on an annual basis. It also shows CRFB's Adjusted August 2025 Baseline, which adjusts CBO’s January baseline to account for the passage of OBBBA, tariffs, and other legislative and administrative changes that have occurred throughout the year, and it includes economic projections from CBO’s September 2025 View of the Economy from 2025 to 2028.

Where possible, the tracker also shows projections from the Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) Fiscal Year 2026 Mid-Session Review that incorporates OBBBA and tariffs as enacted as well as proposed discretionary cuts. These economic and fiscal forecasts are far rosier than consensus.

Including assumed macroeconomic effects, CEA estimates that when incorporating the effects of OBBBA, pre-July tariffs, discretionary cuts, energy reforms, and deregulation:

• Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow about 4 percent annually through 2028 and 2 percent per year thereafter.
• Debt will fall to 97 percent of GDP by the end of Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 and 94 percent by 2034.
• Deficits will fall to $1.7 trillion (5.2 percent of GDP) by 2026 and $1.5 trillion (3.2 percent of GDP) by 2034.
• Primary deficits will fall to $660 billion (2.0 percent of GDP) by 2026 and turn to a $30 billion primary surplus (0.1 percent of GDP) by 2034.
• Implied nominal revenue will grow to above $5.5 trillion (17.0 percent of GDP) by 2026 and $8.2 trillion (17.7 percent of GDP) by 2034.
• The reconciliation bill will be responsible for adding $1.8 trillion to deficits between 2025 and 2034, net of dynamic effects. 

The Treasury Department’s Monthly Treasury Statement included estimates of revenue, outlays, and deficits for FY 2025, which ended on September 30. We use these estimates to start tracking nominal revenue, primary deficits, and total deficits. 

CRFB will track these claims over time in the blog below, as well as in the linked  Google Sheet. We will update this tracker and public spreadsheet in real time as new projections and data are released.

Importantly, whether actual outcomes are similar or different from projections is not necessarily indicative of the quality or accuracy of projections – in particular, the projected impact of specific legislative changes. Many changes unrelated to OBBBA or tariff policy – including legislative, administrative, and economic changes – can lead to different fiscal and economic outcomes.

Gross Domestic Product 

CEA projects that the economy, as measured by real GDP, will grow roughly 4 percent per year for the next four years (2025 through 2028) and 2 percent per year thereafter.²

CBO’s September economic projections expect real GDP to grow at less than half of CEA’s projected growth over the next few years – 2.0 percent in 2025 and 2027 and 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2028. OMB’s near-term forecasts project less than 2 percent real growth in 2025 and roughly 3 percent per year through 2028 – less than three-quarters of CEA’s projections.

Beyond 2028, CBO has previously projected growth to average 1.8 percent per year, while OMB continues to project 3 percent annual growth. 

As a result of these high growth assumptions, CEA foresees that real GDP will be 4 percent above CBO’s forecast (at $31 trillion in 2024 dollars) by the end of 2026 and 8 percent above that forecast (at $34 trillion) by the end of 2028. CEA’s projections are 5 percent above OMB’s by 2028, though below OMB’s by 2034. 

Debt-to-GDP

CEA projects that debt held by the public as a share of the economy will hold steady around 98 percent of GDP for the next couple of years, decline to 96 percent by FY 2028, and further fall to 94 percent of GDP by 2034. Under CRFB’s Adjusted August 2025 Baseline that considers the estimated budgetary effects of OBBBA, tariffs, and other regulatory changes – but no changes to expected GDP – debt will total 100 percent of GDP in 2025, 102 percent by 2026, and 119 percent by 2034. Assuming the President’s discretionary cuts, OMB projects debt held by the public will begin to fall as a percent of GDP by 2029 and reach 95 percent by 2034.

Deficits

CEA projects deficits will fall from $1.8 trillion in FY 2024 to $1.6 trillion in 2025, $1.7 trillion by 2026, and $1.5 trillion by 2034. Under CRFB’s Adjusted August 2025 Baseline, deficits would total $1.7 trillion in 2025, $1.8 trillion by 2026, and $2.6 trillion by 2034. Under the MSR, OMB projects deficits will approach $2.0 trillion by 2027 before declining to $1.2 trillion by 2034.

The Treasury Department reported the deficit for FY 2025 was $1.8 trillion.

As a share of the economy, CEA projects deficits will decline from 6.4 percent of GDP in FY 2024 to 5.2 percent in 2025 and 3.2 percent by 2034. Under CRFB’s Adjusted August 2025 Baseline, deficits will total 5.6 percent of GDP in 2025, 5.9 percent by 2026, and 6.2 percent by 2034. Under the MSR, OMB projects deficits will reach 7.0 percent of GDP by 2026 before falling to 2.5 percent by 2034.

Primary Deficits

CEA projects primary deficits – that is, deficits excluding interest – will fall from $950 billion in FY 2024 to $640 billion in 2025 and $660 billion by 2026; by 2034, CEA projects a $30 billion primary surplus. Under CRFB’s Adjusted August 2025 Baseline, primary deficits would total $745 billion in 2025, $830 billion by 2026, and $900 billion by 2034.

Based on the Treasury Department’s data, we calculate the primary deficit was $805 billion in FY 2025.

As a share of the economy, CEA projects primary deficits will decline from 3.3 percent of GDP in FY 2024 to 2.1 percent in 2025, 2.0 percent by 2026, and a 0.1 percent primary surplus by 2034. Under CRFB’s Adjusted August 2025 Baseline, primary deficits will total 2.5 percent of GDP in 2025, 2.6 percent by 2026, and 2.1 percent by 2034.

Implied Revenue Levels

Although CEA does not project revenue levels explicitly, we can approximate them based on CEA’s projected changes in primary deficits and the details behind those projections.³

Based on this approximation, CEA projects nominal revenue levels will grow from $4.9 trillion in 2024 to $5.3 trillion in 2025, $5.5 trillion by 2026, and $8.2 trillion by 2034. Under CRFB’s Adjusted August 2025 Baseline, nominal revenue will total $5.2 trillion in 2025, $5.5 trillion by 2026, and $7.5 trillion by 2034. CEA’s projections do not account for tariffs imposed in July or later, and neither CEA’s nor CRFB’s projections account for any changes in inflation.

The Treasury Department reported that revenue in FY 2025 was $5.2 trillion.

As a share of the economy, CEA projections imply revenue will remain steady around 17 percent of GDP through 2029 and grow to 17.7 percent of GDP by 2034. These figures are in line with CRFB’s Adjusted August 2025 Baseline, driven by the fact that higher assumed output boosts both the numerator (revenue) and denominator (GDP) in the equation.

Deficit Impact of OBBBA

CEA estimates OBBBA will increase deficits by $1.8 trillion on a dynamic basis through 2034, with dynamic feedback covering over half of the $4.0 trillion conventional cost. Other dynamic scores have ranged from $3.5 trillion to $4.0 trillion through 2034. Although CBO has not yet produced a dynamic score of the final bill, we expect their estimates will be above the $4.1 trillion conventional score, based on their dynamic score of the House bill.

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As new projections and data become available, we will continue to update our CEA Tracker and make adjustments where appropriate. The data will also remain available on our CEA Tracker Google Sheet, which will be updated as well.

1  CRFB's calculations are derived from the CEA’s “One Big Beautiful Chart Book.” Numeric values were reconstructed from the published graphics using hand measurement and thus might not precisely match CEA’s exact numbers, as CEA has not released the underlying data. In some cases, the figures do not appear to match stated numbers exactly -- for example, CEA’s graphics imply primary deficit reduction of more than $5.2 trillion through 2034, while they claim $5.1 trillion. Our figures are based on the graphs and not the claims.

2  These annual growth rates are inferred from CEA’s report using constructed nominal and percent of GDP values. This method introduces an additional level of uncertainty when it comes to growth rates, so individual year figures may prove inexact, though estimates should be close over multi-year periods.

3  We assume deficit reduction from economic growth only effects revenue – this is a conservative assumption, as additional economic growth is likely to boost both revenue and spending and therefore increase revenue by more than the total deficit reduction.