Budget Projections
Latest
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House Reconciliation Bill Would Massively Increase Near-Term Deficits
The House is continuing to mark up its reconciliation legislation, which we estimate would add $3.3 trillion to the debt including interest or $5.2...
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Permanent Ways & Means Bill Could Add $5.3 Trillion to Deficits
The House Ways & Means Committee is set to mark up its title of the Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 reconciliation bill on Tuesday. The Joint Committee on...
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Ways & Means Draft Could Add $5 Trillion to Deficits
Update (5/10/2025): This piece was published prior to the Joint Committee on Taxation's revenue estimate , which totals $4.9 trillion for the bill as...
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Extending TCJA is as Big as Doubling Social Security’s Shortfall
Policymakers are considering an extension of expiring parts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) as part of a reconciliation bill, which could reduce...
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Analysis of CBO’s March 2025 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its March 2025 Long-Term Budget Outlook, which builds off its January 2025 ten-year projections...
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Tax Cut Extensions Would Add $37 Trillion to Debt by 2054
In a recent letter, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that extending and reviving various provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act...
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Putting the Reconciliation Resolution in Context
The House Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 budget resolution would allow policymakers to add $2.8 trillion to primary deficits through 2034 via a reconciliation...
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House Spending Cuts Would Not Be Largest in History
The House recently adopted its Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 budget resolution, which includes reconciliation instructions allowing a net $2.8 trillion of...
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“Current Policy Baseline” Gimmick Could Explode the Debt
As the House and Senate work to land on a concurrent budget resolution, Congress may consider trying to measure their reconciliation bills relative to...
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Interest on the Debt to Grow Past $1 Trillion Next Year
The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest budget and economic outlook includes a troubling projection for net interest payments on the debt...
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Debt-to-GDP Growth Could Double with a $5.5 Trillion Bill
According to press reports, House lawmakers were recently considering a budget resolution with reconciliation instructions to allow up to $5.5...
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More than 4/5 of Spending Growth Will Come from Social Security, Health, & Interest
From Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to 2035, nominal spending will grow by 53 percent according to the latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline. About...