Blog
Welcome to our blog – The Bottom Line, where you’ll find up-to-date commentary and analysis on the most important news in the fiscal world. Below is a list of our blog posts.
12-Month Rolling Deficit is $2.1 Trillion in March 2025
The federal government has borrowed $2.1 trillion over the past year – April 2024 to March 2025 – based on estimates from the Congressional Budget...
How Much Will Trump’s New Tariffs Raise?
On April 2, the Trump Administration announced a series of so-called " reciprocal tariffs” applied to nearly every country with which the United...
Senate Budget Could Enable Unprecedented Deficit Increase
The Senate’s proposed concurrent Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 budget resolution would allow policymakers to add $5.8 trillion to primary deficits through...
Senate Instructions Would Push Fiscal Goals Further Out of Reach
The Senate’s proposed concurrent budget resolution would allow lawmakers to add $5.8 trillion to deficits through 2034. We estimate that enacting...
How Much Did President Biden Add to the Debt?
Over the four years of President Biden’s term – from January 2021 through January 2025 – we estimate that he approved $4.7 trillion in new ten-year...
What’s in the Senate’s Concurrent FY 2025 Budget?
Update (4/11/2025): The Senate adopted the budget described below on April 5, 2025, and the House adopted the budget on April 10, 2025, making this...
Rumored Senate Reconciliation Instructions Would Double Debt Growth
Press reports indicate that Senate leadership may release a proposed concurrent budget resolution for Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 as early as today with...
Fiscal Goals Become Very Difficult with Reconciliation Plans
It would take more than $7 trillion of ten-year savings to stabilize debt at the size of the economy by Fiscal Year (FY) 2034. But rather than making...
Debt Ceiling Needs to be Raised in Advance of X Date
Recent reports from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Bipartisan Policy Center estimate that the debt ceiling, which was reinstated on...
The House’s $2 Trillion in Spending Cuts Should Be an Absolute Minimum
The reconciliation instructions in the House’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 budget resolution – which allow up to $2.8 trillion of net borrowing through 2034...
CBO Releases March 2025 Long-Term Budget and Economic Outlook
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just released its March 2025 Long-Term Budget and Economic Outlook, its first full thirty-year baseline and...
Medicare Advantage Will Be Overpaid by $1.2 Trillion
The Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC) released their latest status report on the Medicare Advantage (MA) program last week. Based on this...