Economics
Latest
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Growth Just Hit 4.1 Percent – Don't Expect It To Last
Read moreThe Bureau of Economic Analysis today released its initial estimate that the economy grew at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter of...
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Does CBO "Expect the TCJA to Significantly Boost" the Economy in 2018?
Read moreUPDATE: The FRBSF paper has been corrected to remove the erroneous claim that CBO’s growth estimates are well in excess of theirs. The below fact...
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The Deficit Is Not "Coming Down Rapidly"
Read moreThis morning, White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appeared on Fox Business and made the following claim (emphasis added): "As...
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CBO Economic Forecasts Are Similar to the Consensus, Unlike OMB
Read moreThe Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) analysis of the President's Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 budget found that the President's policies would still...
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Can America Sustain the Recent Economic Boost?
Read moreKey Takeaways: The good news is that the economy is doing well; however, this is unlikely to turn into sustained growth at the same rate. Short-term...
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It Would Take Nearly Unprecedented Economic Growth to Balance the Budget
Read moreIncreased economic growth has often been cited as a solution to our fiscal problems or as a way to offset deficit-increasing legislation. However...
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Is CBO "Always Wrong" Because It Doesn't Understand Growth?
Read moreIn dismissing projected trillion-dollar deficits, National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow recently claimed that one should "never believe the...
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IMF: Tax Bill's Boost to Growth is Short-Term
Read moreThis week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a new estimate of economic growth, revising their short-term estimate upwards because of the...
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Official Analysis Finds Tax Bill Will Produce Marginal Growth, Cost $1.1 Trillion
Read moreAt the end of December, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) released its final dynamic analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). JCT's analysis...
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Official Dynamic Score Shows Senate Tax Bill Will Still Cost Over $1 Trillion
Read moreThe Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has released its official dynamic score of the Senate tax plan as passed by the Senate Finance Committee...
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Can Tax Reform Generate 0.4% Additional Growth?
Read moreWell-crafted tax reform would improve economic growth. While pro-growth tax reform can generate some revenue to the Treasury from the added growth, as...
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Gene Steuerle: A Debt Straightjacket or a Misdiagnosed Disease?
Read moreNoting rising public and private debt across the developed world, International Economy magazine asked a group of economists, including me, “Has the...