Monitoring the Treasury Market with Fiscal Dashboard

The Treasury market has been making headlines recently, amid poor Treasury auction results and heightened volatility in yields. While strong growth and persistent, uncertain inflation have weighed on demand for Treasury securities, large deficits, rising debt, and shifts in the investor base are also putting pressure on the Treasury market. You can track these trends and more in CRFB’s new Fiscal Dashboard.

Use the Fiscal Dashboard to explore data, click into metrics for more detail, and track fiscal, economic, and financial conditions over time.

Last week, auctions for 5-year and 7-year Treasury securities cleared at yields not seen in decades, with the 5-year hitting the highest awarded yield since June 2006 and the 7-year the highest since 1993 (this security was discontinued in 1993 but reintroduced in 2009). Despite the strong yields, the auctions showed weaker demand across key metrics compared with the past 12 months, with fewer bids and greater absorption by primary dealers – the Treasury market’s designated market makers.

Auction weakness has coincided with a broader climb in Treasury yields over the past few weeks, with the 10-year Treasury note topping 5.2% last week and the 30-year bond reaching beyond 5.5%.

The Treasury market is shaped by a complex mix of forces, ranging from our large and rising debt to growth, inflation, dollar status, the composition of debt, who holds the debt, and more. CRFB’s Fiscal Dashboard brings these indicators together in one place, allowing users to track these forces as they evolve.

Use the Fiscal Dashboard to explore data, click into metrics for more detail, and track fiscal, economic, and financial conditions over time.