Sources of Spending Growth in the Long Term
Over the past few weeks, we have been posting in-depth analysis of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) Long-Term Outlook. In its supplemental data, CBO shows that health care spending is a major driver of our projected spending over the long term. By 2060, federal health care spending as a share of the economy will double from its current level to 10 percent of GDP. The major health care spending programs include Medicare, Medicaid, health exchange subsidies, and the Children's Health Insurance Program. Other sources of growth in spending include Social Security and interest costs. The following graph shows the drivers of our spending growth (excluding interest). Note that interest spending is actually the fastest growing part of the budget.