How Much Revenue Will Trump's Tariffs Raise?
On February 1, 2025, President Trump signed three executive orders imposing new tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico. Below is an update of our estimate of the potential revenue raised from these tariffs prior to their official announcement.
President Trump's tariffs include a 10 percent additional tariff on all imports from China that went into effect on February 4. We estimate that this tariff will raise $20 billion in revenue through the rest of Calendar Year (CY) 2025 and $200 billion through Fiscal Year (FY) 2035 on a conventional basis.
Two separate tariffs – a 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada (except for some Canadian energy and resource imports that will be tariffed at 10 percent) and a 25 percent tariff on imports from Mexico – have been put on hold until March. We estimate these additional tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would increase revenue by about $110 billion over the rest of Calendar Year (CY) 2025 if they are allowed to go into effect. If made permanent, we estimate they would raise $1.3 trillion through Fiscal Year (FY) 2035 on a conventional basis. Accounting for economic effects, we estimate the combined tariffs (both the enacted and delayed) would raise $1.3 trillion through 2035.
Revenue Raised from Announced Additional Tariffs
| Policy | CY 2025 | FY 2025-2035 |
|---|---|---|
| Tariffs Enacted on February 4, 2025 | ||
| 10% Tariff, China | $20 billion | $200 billion |
| Total Revenue (conventional), Enacted Tariffs | $20 billion | $200 billion |
| Tariffs Delayed Until March 4, 2025 | ||
| 25% Tariff, Mexico | $60 billion | $750 billion |
| 25% Tariff, Canada | $40 billion | $500 billion |
| Total Revenue (conventional), Delayed Tariffs | $110 billion | $1.3 trillion |
| Total Revenue (dynamic), Combined Tariffs | $120 billion | $1.3 trillion |
Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates mainly based on data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and U.S. Census Bureau.
Notes: Numbers are rough and rounded to the nearest $10 billion in CY 2025 and to $50 billion through FY 2035 for individual policies and $100 billion for "Total Revenue" estimates. Due to rounding, numbers may not add up precisely to the totals shown. Conventional estimates reflect the average of scenarios where lost trade is and isn’t diverted to other trading partners. Conventional estimates assume tariffs would reduce import levels consistent with elasticities derived from research and that all gained tariff revenue would be subject to income and payroll tax revenue offsets. For diversion estimates, diverted imports are subject to elasticities to the degree that tariffs on imports from other countries have also risen. Impacts on the economy are roughly created using CBO estimates as a reference, and the resulting revenue impacts assume GDP losses are due to productivity losses.
Importantly, our estimates including dynamic effects on revenues are very rough and meant to convey the magnitude of their effects rather than precise scores. Based on available data from the Congressional Budget Office, we assume these tariffs would reduce U.S. output by about 0.3 percent once phased in. There is great uncertainty regarding the actual effects.
The estimates here closely match those in our Budget Offsets Bank and differ primarily due to the inclusion of the remainder of 2025 in the policy window and a 10 percent tariff on some Canadian imports.
