Costs of Policy Changes under President's Budget
CRFB has updated its comparisons of the costs of the President's proposed policies -- outlined in the President's FY 2011 Budget -- incorporating new revenue estimates from JCT (see our original post on the CBO's preliminary analysis of the President's Budget here).
The CBO now estimates that the President's budget proposals would create $9.8 trillion in deficits over the coming decade, compared to OMB's estimate of $8.5 trillion. CRFB will update this table again when the CBO releases its complete analysis of the President's Budget.
| OMB and CBO Estimates of 2011-2020 Costs of Provisions in President's FY 2011 Budget (billions)# | ||
| OMB | CBO | |
| BEA Baseline Deficit |
$5,472 | $5,984 |
| Tax Proposals | ||
| Renew 2001/2003 Tax Cuts for Families Making under $250,000 | $2,419 | $2,465 |
| Index AMT to Inflation | $659 | $577 |
| Limit Itemized Deductions | -$291 | -$289 |
| Reform U.S. International Tax System | -$122 | -$122 |
| Impose Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee | -$90 | -$90 |
| Tax Cuts for Families and Individuals | $143 | $154 |
| Tax Cuts for Businesses | $93 | $82 |
| Continue Certain Expiring Provisions | $47 | $63 |
| Close Tax Gap | -$49 | -$22 |
| Loophole Closers and Other Revenue Raisers | -$207 | -$226 |
| Other* | $15 | $25 |
| Subtotal | $2,617 | $2,617 |
| Spending Proposals | ||
| Stimulus* | $169 | $131 |
| Health Care Placeholder* | -$150 | -$150 |
| Modify Pell Grants~ | $187 | $197 |
| Medicare Physician Payment Update | $371 | $286 |
| Student Loan Reform | -$49 | -$67 |
| Waste, Fraud, and Abuse | -$132 | N/A@ |
| Discretionary Changes (including placeholder for reduced war spending)^ | -$693 | -$152 |
| Other Changes | $93 | $107 |
| Subtotal | -$201 | $352 |
| Debt Service | $643 | $808 |
| Total Deficit Under President's Budget |
$8,531 | $9,761 |
# Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.
* Measures reflect net effect of both revenue and spending changes.
~ Cost reflects net policy changes and not the transfer of pell grant funding from mandatory to discretionary outlays.
@ The CBO does not typically estimate potentail program integrity savings.
^ Large variation between CBO and OMB estimates for discretionary and war spending changes reflects different baseline estimates, which create different estimates for discretionary policy changes.
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