12-Month Deficit Decreases to $1.6 Trillion in June 2024

The federal budget deficits totaled $1.6 trillion over the past 12 months, including the $73 billion June deficit released today by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This deficit is lower than it would be otherwise primarily due to timing shifts. This updates our previous analysis for the month of June. 

The 12-month rolling deficit from July 2023 to June 2024 is $154 billion lower than the $1.7 trillion from the 12-month period prior. This is in part due to timing shifts that shifted outlays from June to May. Ignoring the timing shifts, June would have had a deficit of $166 billion as compared to $73 billion. Removing the effects of the student loan cancellation, which was ruled illegal last year, the rolling deficit was $1.9 trillion, a decrease from May’s $2.1 trillion. As a share of the economy, the rolling deficit was 5.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or 6.8 percent of GDP excluding student loan effects.

Compared to the previous 12-month period, total nominal spending is down 1.7 percent to $6.4 trillion (22.6 percent of GDP). By comparison, nominal revenue is up 1.0 percent compared to the previous 12-month period, to $4.8 trillion (17.0 percent of GDP).

The gap between spending and revenues continue to add to our deteriorating fiscal situation. Debt is projected to continue rising from 97.3 percent of GDP at the end of FY 2023 to a record 106.2 percent of GDP by 2027 and 122.4 percent by the end of the decade. Urgent action is needed from lawmakers for both immediate and long-term solutions to our fiscal deterioration. Policymakers should work together to reduce the debt and improve our overall economic outlook.