CBO's Long Term Outlook Has Arrived
The much-anticipated CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook has been released this morning, projecting what the budget will look like over the next 75 years. CBO's outlook shows a tale of two paths: the relatively optimistic Extended Baseline and the absolutely disastrous Alternative Fiscal Scenario. The Extended Baseline assumes that current law happens and brings debt down to a sustainable level while the AFS assumes--more realistically--that current policies will be extended, resulting in exponentially growing debt. Later today, we will release our CRFB Realistic baseline--which we feel is the most realistic scenario--that will likely show an unsustainable debt path between the two scenarios.
CBO has included a helpful infographic that breaks down the AFS and EBS with visuals that compare revenues, spending, and deficits. While it does not provide full detail of the composition of those two projections, it is worth a look until we release our full report:
We will have a more detailed analysis of the Outlook later today, along with our updated Realistic baseline. Stay tuned to The Bottom Line for further analysis of the Long Term Outlook!
The full Long-Term Budget Outlook report from the CBO can be found here: