CBO Projects Social Security Deficits in 2010
CBO recently published new projections for the revenues and outlays for Social Security (kudos to Andrew Biggs for pointing this out). The updated projections, show that outlays will exceed revenues in 2010 and 2011, followed by several years of small surpluses before deficits return for good in 2016. Chiefly because of the economic crisis, these numbers are considerably worse than those from a year ago.
Instead of projected a cumulative surplus of around $700 billion over the next decade, CBO is now projecting a surplus of only $19 billion.
The majority of the downward revision comes from decrease in expected revenues. CBO estimates payroll tax revenue to be $873 billion lower than previously projected, over the next ten years. And other revenues to be $31 billion lower.
|2008 Surplus Projections||80||86||95||95||88||80||68||54||38||19|
|2009 Surplus Projections||18||-10||-9||8||18||17||9||-6||-23||-41|