Preliminary Estimate of Reconciliation Act from CBO

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the JCT have completed a preliminary estimate of the "spending and revenue effects of an amendment in the nature of a substitute to H.R. 4872," otherwise known as the Reconciliation Act of 2010. This estimate is still preliminary as CBO still must review the language of the reconciliation proposal and further refine their budgetary projections.

CBO states that enacting both H.R. 3590, the "Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act" (see their score of this bill here and our charts comparing estimates and impacts here) and the reconciliation proposal would produce a net reduction in federal deficits of $138 billion over ten years. There is speculation that net deficit reduction in the second ten year period would be around $1.2 trillion. If H.R. 3590 is not enacted, and only H.R. 4872 is enacted, CBO speculates that net deficit reduction in the first decade would be $82 billion. These scores seem to bode well for efforts by House Democratic leaders to gather enough "yea" votes to feel confident holding a floor vote on the bill, likely to take place this weekend.

Check back in at the Bottom Line soon to see CRFB's updated charts comparing the various health care reform proposals.