CRFB Breaks Down CBO's Estimate of the President's Budget

As a follow up to our initial reaction to CBO's estimates of the President's budget, CRFB has released a full report that breaks down the analysis from CBO. Under the President's budget, public debt as a percent of GDP would fall from a high of 77 percent in 2014 to 70 percent by 2023. The budget gets there by proposing an estimated $1.7 trillion in savings relative to the CRFB Realistic Baseline, or $1.1 trillion relative to CBO's current law baseline.

The table below shows the ten-year deficit impact of the budget's policies relative to both baselines under CBO's and OMB's estimates. Relative to the CRFB Realistic Baseline, the budget would increase revenues by $560 billion over ten years, reduce primary spending by $910 billion, and reduce net interest costs by $210 billion.

Encouragingly, CBO’s latest projections show lower debt levels under the President’s budget than what OMB estimated. On the other hand, debt would be falling a slower rate leaving little room for error should projections turn out to be overly optimistic. In any case, more work will be necessary to sure up our entitlement programs and keep debt on a clear downward path relative to the economy; but the President’s budget represents a welcome start.

Click here to read the full report.