Budget Experts’ Prediction of a Government Shutdown

We expect there will be an awful lot of talk about a government shutdown in the coming weeks and months, so we decided to create a highly unscientific poll to see how likely budget wonks think it is that we will have a government shutdown. This specific question looks at the probability of a shutdown of any length this October.

Our first official result of our unscientific poll is that the likelihood of a shutdown this October is…drum roll…58 percent. (It’s interesting to note that the experts at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget place the likelihood significantly lower.)

We will continue to update the Budget Experts’ predictions throughout the Fall.