Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

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Nov 15, 2017|Washington Examiner

Democrats tee off on Senate GOP making individual tax cuts temporary

If the costs of renewing the breaks were included in the score of the bill, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it would score as a bigger tax cut than advertised. The added tax cut would be $240 billion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an outside group that advocates lower deficits.

Nov 14, 2017|The Washington Post

Democrats have leverage in one part of the GOP tax cut process

Medicare alone could lose $25 billion in funding next year if paygo were to go into effect, according to a new Congressional Budget Office report. Customs and Border Patrol, the Student Loan Administration and the Military Retirement Fund would also face the scalpel, according to an analysis from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. (Unlike Medicare, Social Security and most other safety net programs like food stamps are exempt from paygo cuts.)

Nov 14, 2017|NPR

CHARTS: Here's How GOP's Tax Breaks Would Shift Money To Rich, Poor Americans

Altogether, $1 trillion of the $1.5 trillion cost of the House bill would go toward business, according to an initial analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget — $2.2 trillion in cuts, minus $1.2 trillion in business tax increases. Meanwhile, around $300 billion will go to individuals: $3.3 trillion in tax cuts for individuals, minus $3 trillion in tax increases.

Nov 14, 2017|Vox

The Republican tax reform bill will live and die by this obscure Senate rule

One way this happens, floated by Zach Moller, a senior policy analyst for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, is what he calls the “Title Gambit.” Republicans could split up their tax bill into three separate titles: One would be a temporary Republican-led effort that would pursue aggressive tax cuts; a second would be permanent and comply with Senate rules; and the third would be a permanent bipartisan proposal needing 60 votes that would likely find consensus around issues like the child tax credit or doubling the standard deduction. By going this route, Republicans would be able to split the impact of the deficit between budget reconciliation bills and regular order.

Nov 14, 2017|The Financial Times

Republicans throw Obamacare repeal into tax debate

Congress would have to vote to overturn the effects of the PAYGO rules, and that would involve Democratic votes in the Senate. Doing so could throw up resistance from Republicans who are worried about the scale of government borrowing.

Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said he believed the most likely outcome was that Congress ends up waiving the “sequester” imposed by the PAYGO rules. “It shows how far members are willing to go to avoid fiscal responsibility,” he said.

Nov 14, 2017|Yahoo! Finance

CBO: House GOP tax plan triggers $25 billion in Medicare cuts

In a response to the CBO’s letter, Rep. Hoyer issued a statement, noting the broad impact beyond the deficit on the program cuts, adding that he actually wrote the “pay as you go” law, and called for a bipartisan lawmaking process.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the “pay as you go rules” were passed with bipartisan support.

Nov 14, 2017|Newsweek

What Is Trump’s Tax Reform? Everything To Know About The Plan For America’S Rich

Is Donald Trump really draining the swamp? Not so much. He’s just changing the water. The December holidays are about a month away, but the Republicans are already decorating their bill with trillions of sparkly ornaments. The biggest giveaways include a huge reduction in the corporate income tax rate—from 35 percent to 20 percent—and the elimination of the estate tax. (It affects only a few thousand extremely wealthy families, including the Trumps and their in-laws, the Kushners.) Beyond the bill’s big-ticket items, there are small ones that have special interests eager to hire top talent like Mottur to cover their assets. He’s loath to talk about what he’s doing behind the scenes, but he’s urging clients to remember that any deduction Congress preserves means lawmakers have to find another perk to eliminate. “It’s like moving place cards for a wedding,” says Maya MacGuineas, the head of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a D.C.-based think tank focused on the deficit. “If you cut one thing, you have to replace it with another.”

Nov 14, 2017|Mic

Republican tax bill could slash $25 billion from Medicare, CBO says

The CBO said $25 billion of those cuts would come from Medicare, the popular social insurance program that provides health care to seniors age 65 and up.

The remaining $111 billion in cuts would come from “agriculture subsidies, student loans, the Social Services Block Grant program and mandatory spending in the Affordable Care Act other than exchange subsidies and Medicaid expansion,” according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Nov 14, 2017|The Hill

GOP tax bill could spur $25 billion in Medicare cuts: CBO

Of the remaining $111 billion, CBO estimated that the OMB would only be able to cut $85 billion to 90 billion.

But that also means that the nonexempted accounts would be virtually wiped out.

Those include agricultural subsidies, some health funds linked to the Affordable Care Act, Customs and Border Patrol operations and funds in the Student Loan Administration, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budgetary watchdog group.

Nov 13, 2017|The Washington Post

If the tax bill is so great, why does the GOP keep lying about it?

In fact, it’s not even the biggest tax cut in the past five years, in either inflation-adjusted dollar terms or as a share of gross domestic product, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Nov 13, 2017|The Washington Post

The most compelling criticism of Trump tax plan

Moreover, since CBPP doubts the child tax credit and the business expensing provisions will be allowed to expire, “the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that continuing them after their expiration in 2023 would add roughly $400 billion to the cost of the bill over the decade. These additional costs and the associated debt service would boost the debt-to-GDP ratio to 99 percent by 2027.”

Nov 13, 2017|The Wall Street Journal

Republicans Work to Make Tax Bill Meet Senate Rules

As written, the Senate Republican tax bill doesn’t comply with what is known as “the Byrd Rule,” which prevents the Senate from passing tax and spending measures on simple majority votes if they increase budget deficits beyond 10 years.

“It literally cannot pass the Senate. It’s against the rules unless they have 60 votes,” said Marc Goldwein, senior vice president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Nov 13, 2017|Los Angeles Times

Senate Republicans must still figure out how to eliminate tax bill's deficit after 10 years

No congressional analysis has been done yet of the budgetary impact of the Senate Republican tax bill in 2028.

But the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has estimated that the House bill would add about $155 billion to the deficit in 2028, violating the Byrd rule.

Nov 12, 2017|The New York Times

Paradise Papers Show How Misguided the G.O.P. Is on Taxes

The groups that are already dodging taxes through offshore accounting are the ones that make out with the biggest benefits. According to an analysis by the conservative Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, $1 trillion of the overall $1.5 trillion cost is from cuts for businesses.

Nov 12, 2017|The Atlantic

The Republican Tax Bills Are About to Shrink

The proposal House Republicans approved in the Ways and Means Committee last week meets the first test but not the second: Steep cuts to the corporate and individual tax rates would cost more money than the government would bring in through the elimination of popular deductions and exemptions, even when accounting for economic growth.

The Senate “has an even bigger problem,” said Ed Lorenzen, a senior adviser for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The bill released on Thursday differs from the House proposal in a number of respects. While it completely eliminates the deduction for state and local taxes, it maintains the mortgage interest tax deduction and a few other expensive tax breaks. The Senate bill also reduces the income tax rate paid by the wealthiest earners, while the House bill does not. “The Senate bill on a permanent ongoing basis has a much larger cost, a much larger deficit than the House bill,” Lorenzen told me.

Nov 12, 2017|Bloomberg

Mnuchin Stands by Trump That GOP Tax Cut Is Biggest Ever

A study released in October by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget used Treasury Department data to calculate that Reagan’s 1981 cuts represented about 2.9 percent of GDP at the time.

There’s worse news for Trump and Mnuchin: the CFRB’s analysis also found that tax cuts enacted in 2010 as part of the Tax Relief and Job Creation Act amounted to 1.3 percent of GDP. And cuts enacted in 2012 as the American Taxpayer Relief Act amounted to 1.8 percent of GDP.

Nov 10, 2017|Reuters

Deficit worries complicate path for Republican tax cuts

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan budget watchdog in Washington, on Friday called a Senate Republican tax plan a “fatally flawed budget buster,” likening it to Republican legislation in the House of Representatives that the House tax committee has approved.

Both measures would add $1.5 trillion over 10 years to the annual budget deficit and the $20 trillion national debt, according to congressional tax analysts.

The watchdog group estimated that $900 billion of the projected $1.5 trillion deficit increase would come from business tax cuts. The remainder would come from individual tax cuts, including a cut in the estate tax on inheritance that would help only the richest Americans, it said.

Nov 10, 2017|Bloomberg

GOP’s Dueling Tax Overhauls Struggle to Pass a Key Red-Ink Test

As written, the Senate proposal “blows a massive hole in the debt,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, in a Twitter message Thursday night.

Nov 10, 2017|The Hill

Tax plan relies on ‘fantasy economics,’ says debt watchdog

A debt watchdog says the GOP is relying on “fantasy economics” in terms of overly-optimistic economic growth and deficit projections in its tax plans.

“It is frightening that so many members of Congress are willing to believe in fantasy economics based in no historical or mathematical reality,” said Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president Maya MacGuineas.

MacGuineas made the comment in a statement on the release of the Senate tax bill, which would lower the corporate tax rate and top individual rate, raise the threshold for the estate tax and do away with a slew of deductions.

MacGuineas said the plans also relied on budgetary tricks and gimmicks to make the deficit math look better than it really is.

“As the Senate marks up this bill, we encourage members to either propose some serious pay-fors or scale back the cost of the bill and reject any gimmicks that hide its true cost,” she said. 

Nov 10, 2017|The Fiscal Times

Big Progress on Tax Reform, but Even Bigger Hurdles Ahead

Even if the tax writers can figure out a way to satisfy the Byrd Rule, with the expiration of some cuts in year 10 looking like a real possibility, there’s still the broader question of running up the debt to fund tax cuts that disproportionately benefit corporations and the wealthy. The Committee for a Responsible Budget published an analysis of the House and Senate tax bills Friday, finding that they reduce revenues by about $1.5 and $1.4 trillion respectively over 10 years. While this means that both likely fall within the budget limit for the tax bill, CRFB says the true costs will likely be higher, given interest on the added debt and the likelihood that some temporary cuts will become permanent. 

Nov 10, 2017|Los Angeles Times

Op-Ed: Whatever happened to the party of fiscal responsibility?

The GOP retreat from fiscal conservatism is twofold: The tax plan helps balloon federal deficits, and it does nothing to address the rising costs of entitlements as the population grows older and sicker.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the proposed GOP House tax cuts would “result in debt reaching the size of the economy by 2028 and exceeding its post-World War II record a year or two later.”

Nov 9, 2017|Tax Notes

Cost of House Tax Bill’s Changes Creep Higher, Threaten Path Ahead

When combined with the other comparatively minor changes to the bill, the JCT said the amendment elevated the bill from a $1.41 trillion tax cut to a $1.57 trillion tax cut. And according to Ed Lorenzen of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), an additional $72 billion in off-budget costs described in the initial JCT estimate’s footnotes brings the total cost of the bill to $146 billion over the reconciliation instructions’ limit.

“[It’s] hard to make that up with loose change,” Lorenzen said. “There will need to be fairly significant changes or new offsets to the bill before the committee finishes markup or in a manager’s amendment when the bill is considered by the House.”

Failure to do so could spell procedural trouble for the tax bill once it goes over to the Senate, according to Lorenzen, who said that if the House passes a bill that doesn’t comply with the reconciliation instructions, “there would be a significant risk that the [Senate] parliamentarian would rule that the bill is not eligible for privileged status as a reconciliation bill in the Senate.”

In such a scenario, the Senate wouldn’t even be able to take up the bill for consideration without the 60 votes needed to waive a point of order, he said.

Nov 8, 2017|

Do tax cuts pay for themselves? Experts say "no"

But George H.W. Bush denounced them as "voodoo economics" before he became Reagan's vice president. Maya MacGuineas, who heads the nonpartisan, nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said those contentions were wrong then, and are wrong today.

"There has always been this myth that tax cuts pay for themselves, and it has always been a desirable one, because who wouldn't want freebie economics to be true?" said MacGuineas.

Nov 7, 2017|The Washington Post

Maya MacGuineas is fine being the ‘fiscal skunk at every party’ when it comes to taxes

“President Trump has actually laid out a lot of the right things we need to do.”

Now there’s something you don’t hear every day. But when it comes to taxes and regulations, Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, thinks the president’s framework is the right one. “We need to reform the tax code. We need to change our regulations,” MacGuineas told me in the latest episode of “Cape Up.” “Some need to be fewer. Some need to be more, but we need to look at our regulatory burden in this country.”

Nov 7, 2017|NPR

A Math 'Gimmick'? GOP Proposes Creating New Tax Policies, Then Letting Them Expire

"Expensing itself has its detractors of how effective it would be," said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget, a Washington nonprofit that advocates for smaller deficits. "But it's sound theory that expensing should increase investment, which increases economic growth and is good for the economy overall."

Nov 7, 2017|Roll Call

Delays, Caps and Chains, Tax Bill Gimmicks Explained

For provisions that are indexed, the bill changes the way the tax code measures inflation. Under current law, adjustments are made using the consumer price index, which, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, can overstate inflation because it fails to account for the fact that when prices of similar goods change, consumers often switch to cheaper options.

Nov 7, 2017|Sun Sentinel

GOP tax plan bad for Florida, nation | Editorial

Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget told The Washington Post that the proposal “emphasizes the need for corporate reforms and how our tax system works. But this is still a deficit-exploding tax cut at a time when the deficit is at near-record levels.”

Nov 7, 2017|The Hill

House tax bill runs afoul of Senate rules: analysis

“We estimate the legislation would add about $155 billion to the deficit in 2028; the Byrd rule does not allow reconciliation legislation to add to the deficit at all beyond the budget window (which currently ends in 2027),” the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) wrote in an review of the legislation.

Changing that could require Republicans to make corporate tax cuts temporary, which the group said could undermine the economic growth they hope to stimulate with the reform.

The bill, the CRFB noted, could also violate the Byrd rule in other, smaller ways. 

“For example, it generates $74 billion in 'off-budget' revenue for Social Security, including $53 billion in additional revenue from certain business income being reclassified as wage income as well as other smaller provisions increasing the amount of taxable wage income. The Senate Parliamentarian may rule some of these provisions to be direct enough changes to the Social Security payroll tax that they cannot remain in the legislation without it losing privilege,” the group wrote.

Nov 7, 2017|Mother Jones

Donald Trump’s Tax Plan Would Give Nearly 50 Percent of Tax Cuts to the Top 1 Percent

To get around their self-imposed deficit limit, House Republicans are phasing out their new $300-per-adult tax credit after 5 years. Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas), the bill’s author, says the credit “will never go away” because Congress will renew it in five years—substantially increasing the cost of the tax cuts. The $300 credit is likely to be one of the most popular aspects of the plan, and the bill’s authors are counting on the fact that lawmakers will feel tremendous pressure to renew it when it expires. Critics of Brady’s accounting gimmick, such as the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, argue that a permanent $300 credit should be included in the bill’s cost if Republicans plan to keep it indefinitely. 

Nov 7, 2017|Huffington Post

Trump’s Trickle-Down Rich Man’s Tax Cut Is Simply Cruel To Many Middle-Class Families

There’s a lot more in this plan to make you sick, but now let’s return to the overall effects. This billionaire’s bonanza is estimated to add $1.5 trillion to the federal deficit over a decade, and that’s “before accounting for interest or possible gimmicks,” according to the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.