Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Media Coverage

Oct 3, 2017|Bloomberg

The GOP Tax Plan Is Already Hitting Speed Bumps

Eliminating state and local deductions along with personal exemptions would generate about $2.9 trillion in revenue over a decade, according to an analysis by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. Even with those offsets, the framework is more than $2 trillion in the red, according to estimates by the TPC and Committee For a Responsible Federal Budget.

Oct 3, 2017|Bloomberg

Republicans Need Tax Principles. Like These.

Under a realistic tax system there will always be distortions. But the current U.S. tax code affects behavior too much. By not taxing employer-provided health insurance payments, for example, the tax code encourages firms to compensate their workers in the form of health insurance, which also increases the price of insurance. By allowing deductions for mortgage-interest payments, the tax code encourages people to buy bigger and more expensive houses. There are dozens upon dozens more examples.

There would be fewer examples under the Republicans' plan. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that their tax framework raises $1.6 trillion over 10 years from repealing itemized deductions.

Oct 3, 2017|New York Daily News

Of red ink and rising tides: Trump's misguided budget priorities

If Trump is genuinely concerned about budgets getting thrown out of whack, he should look no further than his own tax plan.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the blueprint — a huge boon to the wealthiest Americans — would spike the deficit by as much as $2.7 trillion over 10 years.

Oct 2, 2017|CBS News

Wall Street on Trump's tax plan: Ho hum

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget does a nice job of breaking down the detail and the fiscal impacts of the plan. Tax brackets will be consolidated. The Alternative Minimum Tax will be dumped. The standard deduction will be doubled. Most deductions will be dumped. And the corporate tax rate would be lowered to 20 percent while the "pass-through" rate would fall to 25 percent.

Overall, the CRFB estimates, the cuts will be worth a total of $5.8 trillion through 2027 while the tax increases will be worth $3.6 trillion. That would result in a net hit to the national debt of $2.7 trillion including interest. This doesn't factor in any potential boost to the economy, if any, leaving out what's known as "dynamic scoring," which tries to include such impacts.

Oct 2, 2017|Bloomberg TV

What We Know About President Trump's Tax Plan

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget President Maya MacGuineas weighs in on President Trump's proposed tax reform plans. MacGuineas speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."

Oct 2, 2017|The Washington Post

Forget the Paris agreement. The real solution to climate change is in the U.S. tax code.

The study found that if the price of oil were to climb above $70 per barrel, subsidies would have less impact on production because revenue would be high enough to justify drilling. But in that case, the subsidies just become an additional source of profit for oil companies — possibly not the best use of taxpayer dollars given that the tax plan could cost $2.2 trillion by 2027, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a watchdog group.

Oct 1, 2017|Fox News

How will Americans be impacted by the GOP tax plan?

Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Budget provides insight.

Oct 1, 2017|The Washington Post

Why the swamp survives

Just how much more debt the Trump plan might involve is unknown, because so many details (including the distribution of the tax cuts across income class) remain undecided. But an estimate by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget puts the figure at $2.2 trillion over a decade. That’s on top of projected added debt of about $10 trillion in the same 10 years from present policies.

Oct 1, 2017|Bloomberg

Trump’s Team Pushes Back Against Critics of Tax Plan

Separately, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said the plan could add$2.2 trillion to the deficit through 2027. “We estimate the plan calls for roughly $5.8 trillion of tax cuts and $3.6 trillion of base broadening, resulting in about $2.2 trillion of net tax cuts,” the budget watchdog group said in a Sept. 27 report.

Sep 30, 2017|The Hill

Debt reduction must not play second fiddle in tax reform

For instance, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has estimated that the plan would amount to $5.8 trillion in cuts and about $3.6 trillion in increases, adding $2.2 trillion to the deficit. The administration, meanwhile, claimsthat the plan would actually cut the deficit by $1 trillion.

Sep 29, 2017|NBC News

This One Word Is Worth $500 Billion as Congress Debates Tax Cuts

Budget experts across the political spectrum agree that switching baselines would lower projected government revenue by about $460 billion over the next decade — and perhaps more than $500 billion if interest is factored in — as the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calculated last month.

Sep 29, 2017|The Wall Street Journal

Trump Says Tax Cuts Will Supercharge Economic Growth

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the tax framework represents a net tax-cut of $2.2 trillion over a decade.

Sep 29, 2017|Forbes

What The Republican Tax Plan Means For Higher Education

Per the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, if tax expenditures were counted as a “normal” category of government spending, they would account for 28% of the federal budget. The sheer magnitude of these expenditures means ending some of them must be on the table if Congress is serious about tax reform not expanding the federal deficit.

Sep 29, 2017|VICE News

Trump's Tax Fight Could Look a Lot Like the War Over Healthcare

The going theory is that this framework is purposefully vague because Republicans wanted something they could show unity and progress on, and because they know getting into the nitty-gritty will be a nightmare. That, to the mind of Marc Goldewein of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, makes this situation similar to the one Republicans found themsleves in over actually repealing Obamacare: what seemed like an easy fight on a unifying issue became an ugly squabble.

Sep 29, 2017|Slate

Trump’s Tax Cut Is a House of Lies

The most obvious and egregious of these lies is Mnuchin’s claim that the tax plan would raise revenues. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that this plan would actually reduce revenue by $2.2 trillion over 10 years.

Sep 29, 2017|Mother Jones

Economists Think Republicans’ Tax Numbers Are a Joke

Unfortunately for Mnuchin, hardly anyone credible believes him. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said the Republican tax framework released on Wednesday could add $2.2 trillion in deficit spending by handing out tax cuts “like Halloween candy.”

“Deficit-financed tax cuts are a recipe for a short-term economic sugar high followed by sluggish long-term growth,” Maya MacGuineas, the group’s president, warned in a statement.

Sep 28, 2017|The Washington Post

Trump’s spin doesn’t match his tax plan

As for fiscal responsibility, the proposal is an outrage. The Committee for a Responsible Budget, a fiscally conservative group,  in written statement declared:

While significant detail still needs to be filled in, enough exists for a very rough and very preliminary estimate of the details presented. Based on those details – and many assumptions – we estimate the plan calls for roughly $5.8 trillion of tax cuts and $3.6 trillion of base broadening, resulting in about $2.2 trillion of net tax cuts.

These numbers come with a high degree of uncertainty and exclude a number of potential offsets where no details exist. But it is clear that much more work needs to be done to ensure tax reform is fiscally responsible. Given today’s record-high levels of national debt, the country cannot afford a deficit-financed tax cut. Tax reform that adds to the debt is likely to slow, rather than improve, long-term economic growth.

CFRB also spots an obvious gimmick: “Given that it calls for only five years of expensing rather than permanent – a major budget gimmick – it also potentially sets the stage for an extenders package of over $1 trillion when expensing expires.” Unsurprising for a party and president allergic to sound policy and economic reality, Republicans seem determined to snow their donors (See what we’ve come up with!), hand liberals a political gift and infuriate the lonely fiscal conservatives out there who recognize the added debt outweighs any benefit from the temporary growth bubble one could expect to derive from this scheme.

Sep 28, 2017|The Associated Press

$5 trillion question for Trump tax plan: How to pay for it?

Inevitably, analysts say, any tax-cut plan produces losers.

"You can't have responsible tax reform and everyone wins," said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The tax cut is being proposed at a time when the publicly held national debt is already $14.6 trillion. Even if tax rates for companies and families were unchanged, the debt is expected to balloon by an additional $10 trillion over the next decade. That increase largely reflects the rising costs of Social Security and Medicare as the vast generation of baby boomers continues to retire.

The proposed tax cuts in the Trump plan would total $5.8 trillion over 10 years, according to an analysis by the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget and other reports. That figure includes the effects of reducing the number of individual tax brackets and shrinking the corporate tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent, among other changes. (The plan doesn't specify which income levels would apply to each individual bracket.)

Sep 28, 2017|BBC

Trump outlines major tax cut plans

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan think tank, said a rough analysis suggests the proposal would lead to $2.2tn in net cuts over about a decade.

Sep 28, 2017|NBC News

Tax Plan’s Impact a Mystery for Middle Class, but Not for Trump

Paying for the package will be difficult. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the total proposal would cost $2.2 trillionover the next decade. But lawmakers also face strong pressure from affected groups to keep breaks that benefit them, which could add to the cost. Already key lawmakers, like Rep. Pete King, R-N.Y., are upset about losing the state and local deduction.

Sep 28, 2017|The New York Times

In Trump Tax Plan, a Windfall for Businesses Large and Small

The Trump administration made no mention on Wednesday of how it planned to pay for such steep tax cuts, which could cost $2.2 trillion, according to the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget, a nonprofit group. And from the moment it was announced, critics of the plan called it a giveaway to the rich.

Sep 28, 2017|The Wall Street Journal

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin: GOP Tax Plan Would More Than Offset Its Cost

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the framework calls for about $5.8 trillion in tax cuts over a decade, and includes about $3.6 trillion in revenue-raising provisions, leaving a net cut of $2.2 trillion. Mr. Mnuchin said Thursday the administration disagrees with the CRFB analysis, and argued the proposal would actually boost revenues.

Sep 28, 2017|The Washington Post

The GOP tax plan is ridiculous. Here’s why.

A separate estimate of the more recent framework, released by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, put the cost at about $2.2 trillion.

Whatever the actual number is, we know it’s in the trillions. No realistic amount of growth is going to wipe that out.

Sep 28, 2017|The Washington Post

It was candidate Trump’s best trick. Now it’s stalling President Trump’s agenda.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the new GOP framework would cut taxes by $5.8 trillion and recoup $3.6 trillion by eliminating mostly unspecified tax deductions that many companies will fight to preserve. Even if all those battles are won, it will lead to a $2.2 trillion gap in revenue over 10 years, the committee forecast, a level that could prove difficult to push through Congress.

Sep 28, 2017|USA Today

Gary Cohn: American taxpayers care about their wallets, not Trump's

Democrats say corporations are already sitting on large sums of cash and bank borrowing rates are historically low – so unlike when former president Ronald Reagan cut taxes, giving them more money will not translate into more jobs and increased wages for workers. According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, "the economy is unlikely to grow at the 3% annual rate assumed by the administration, and tax reform itself is unlikely to improve growth by more than a few decimal points."

When it comes to the debt, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Budget, including interest costs, the plan would cost $2.7 trillion and increase debt to 101% of gross domestic product by 2027. According to the Tax Policy Center, "trillions of dollars in lost revenue would add to the federal debt, raise interest rates, and make it more costly for businesses to invest. Those costs would offset the benefits of lower corporate tax rates and expensing."

Republicans say their plan will in part be funded by the closing of loopholes in the tax code, even as they have ruled out the elimination of the loopholes with the biggest cash savings: the mortgage interest and charitable contribution deductions. Republicans are vowing to do away with special interest loopholes, without specifying which ones.

The plan lacks many details, including the income threshold for new tax brackets and how it would be paid for. "Further detail on these policies could significantly change the tax plan's revenue effect in either direction by hundreds of billions or perhaps more," says CRFB.

Sep 28, 2017|Bloomberg

Most Economists Agree: Trump Tax Plan Will Widen Budget Deficit

Rather than reducing the deficit, the tax framework Trump and congressional leaders released on Wednesday could add $2.2 trillion to the gap through 2027, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an advocacy group.

Sep 28, 2017|The Washington Examiner

Republicans insist tax cuts won't blow up the deficit

For example, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated Wednesday that the GOP plan to lower tax rates and eliminate many deductions would increase the national debt by $2.2 trillion over the next decade.

Sep 28, 2017|CNBC

3 ways you could be affected by the $2.2 trillion GOP tax plan

Though advisor Gary Cohn claims cuts will be offset entirely by robust and sustained economic growth, skeptics call that "impossible": The plan could cost $2.2 trillion and "add a substantial amount to federal debt," according to an initial assessment by the fiscally conservative Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Sep 28, 2017|The Washington Times

How to fix the federal debt: Budget analysts say it’s only politics that stand in the way

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said it’s a matter of math.

An aging population is increasingly straining the government’s public pensions program, Social Security, and its seniors health care program, Medicare, to the point where they will be exhausted within the next 20 years if policies don’t change.

But with fewer people working as a percentage of the overall population, fewer people are paying into the system to keep it afloat. In 1950, there were 16 workers for every retiree. Today, that stands at 3-to-1, and by 2035, it will be just two workers per retiree.

“It still comes down to the aging of the population, health care costs that are growing faster than the budget or the economy, and an unwillingness to provide enough revenue to pay for all our commitments,” Ms. MacGuineas said. “And there are fewer people working, which puts a huge constraint on how much we can grow the economy.”

Sep 28, 2017|The Hill

Manchin: Trump has good intentions on taxes

The GOP’s outline for tax reform could cost the country $2.2 trillion in lost revenue over a decade, according to a preliminary study by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a fiscally conservative advocacy group.