Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Media Coverage

Dec 22, 2016|Bloomberg Gadfly

Metals Christmas Story is a Fairy Tale

In theory, it's possible that we get something like Scenario C. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell last week poured cold water on the idea of a large infrastructure package, and Trump's "Penny Plan" to cut federal spending will reduce outlays by about $740 billion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a bipartisan think tank. If fiscal policy wasn't stimulating the economy as much, monetary policy would probably remain loose to compensate.

Dec 21, 2016|San Diego Union-Tribune

More debt won’t make America great again

Trump promised job creation through income tax cuts, corporate tax cuts and enormous infrastructure spending. Trump offered only vague details on how he would pay his bills. The bipartisan Campaign to Fix the Debt said last month that Trump’s plans would result in U.S. debt of $5 trillion in 10 years. Crippling debt is not “Making America Great Again.”

Dec 21, 2016|McClatchy

Will a South Carolina fiscal hawk fit in President Trump’s budget office?

Often in the past, budget directors began the job with résumés similar to Mulvaney’s only to inch away from their philosophies when presidents saw a need for compromise. Not Mulvaney. Fiscal discipline “seems like it’s in his DNA. It’s not something he’d walk away from,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budget watchdog group.

Dec 20, 2016|Money Talk News

How the Trump Tax Plan Will Hit You

Trump has said he plans to cut spending by $1.2 trillion in the next decade. But, as noted above, he plans to cut revenue by even more. If nothing else is done to address the shortfall, the national debt will grow by roughly $5.3 trillion (105 percent) by 2026, according to an estimate by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Dec 20, 2016|Bloomberg BNA

Anti-Deficit, Anti-Spending Groups Praise Mulvaney’s Pentagon Efforts

In his campaign, Trump advocated for a boost in infrastructure spending, more money for the military and a tax overhaul that budget groups worry will lead to large budget deficits. Maya MacGuineas, president of the bipartisan anti-deficit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, praised Mulvaney for his OCO stance, but was unsure how it would fit into the Trump White House.

“Mulvaney has proven himself to be very concerned about not adding to the debt, and principled in not tolerating budget gimmicks to do end runs around budget constraints,” she said in an e-mail. “There is a real risk he will not show the same resistance to debt-financed tax cuts, but it will definitely be good to have a deficit hawk at the table who hopefully advocates for bringing the debt down, not up.”

Dec 20, 2016|CNN Money

Trump's big Cabinet surprise

President-elect Donald Trump has nominated conservative Republican Congressman Mick Mulvaney to be his budget director. Mulvaney has made it very clear he thinks America's $19 trillion debt is too high and needs to come down. Budget hawks are thrilled. "He's not going to back down," says Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "That is the advocate we need at this point because debt is so high as a share of economy."

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warned that Trump's campaign proposals would add more than $5 trillion to the debt in the next decade.

Dec 19, 2016|Philadelphia Inquirer

A political columnist confesses his sins

I wrote that Hillary's plan, according to the independent Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, would add $200 billion to the national debt and that Trump's would add "much more." Some readers rightly called me on it. The committee projected Trump's plan would add $5 trillion more. That's a lot more than "much more." I should have written that. It was a clear case of sloppy journalism.

Dec 19, 2016|CNBC

Trump's hardline budget director choice may not believe in his campaign promises

The views of Mulvaney, a staunch fiscal conservative, show that he would want to take the budget in a different direction than Trump did during the campaign. Mulvaney has taken on a "crusade against debt that doesn't have party stripes," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Dec 19, 2016|CNBC

Interest payments could become one of the federal govt's biggest line items

Uncle Sam is about to get hit with higher interest payments. Much higher. And those higher costs will force the government to raise taxes, cut spending or borrow more to make up the shortfall.

That warning comes from a new report by the Committee for a Responsible Budget, following last week's move by the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates, a major turning point that signals a historical reversal of a long-term decline in the cost of borrowing. 

"As debt continues to grow and interest rates return toward more normal levels, interest spending is slated to be the fastest growing part of the budget," the budget watchdog group warned in its report.

Dec 18, 2016|The Fiscal Times

Trump Picks a Leading Deficit Hawk to Run the White House Budget Office

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget claims Trump’s plan would slash federal revenue by $14.5 trillion over the coming two decades, offset by only $2.5 trillion in spending cuts. Trump would also add $3.8 billion in interest payments to cover the additional borrowing necessary to make up for lost tax revenue.

Dec 17, 2016|The Washington Post

Trump names Rep. Mick Mulvaney, a fiscal hawk, to head budget office

Trump has said that stronger growth would mean his tax proposal would not contribute to the national debt, and he has vowed not to cut expensive but popular entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security. But experts have been skeptical of those claims, and Mulvaney would be responsible for reconciling the numbers. One analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated Trump’s tax plan would cost more than $5.3 trillion over the next decade. 

Dec 15, 2016|Bloomberg Businessweek

There Are Plenty of Jobs Out There, America

Trump takes office at a time when Keynesian stimulus is no longer the most urgent need. The slack is mostly gone. The president-elect’s aim of roughly doubling annual growth “is nearly impossible to achieve over a sustained period, absent transformative factors outside the government’s control,” the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an anti-deficit group, wrote in a Dec. 9 blog post. Tax cuts and government spending increases will backfire if all they do is rev up demand temporarily, and Trump’s plan to expel undocumented aliens would shrink the workforce, depressing growth.

Dec 15, 2016|Bloomberg Markets

R.I.P. Bond Bull Market as Charts Say Last Gasps Have Been Taken

A ballooning of U.S. debt levels could add tailwinds to the increase in yields, she said. That’s a possibility given Trump’s plans, which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says would result in $5.3 trillion of borrowing and push America’s debt burden to 105 percent of its gross domestic product, from 75 percent now.

Dec 14, 2016|NPR

How Fast Could GOP Congress Get Obamacare Repeal To Trump's Desk?

Could lawmakers introduce and pass a repeal measure in the 17 days between Jan. 3, when they convene, and Inauguration Day, Jan. 20? Not likely, say budget specialists. "No way. I just don't think it's possible," says G. William Hoagland, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington-based think tank, and a 20-year Republican staff veteran of the Senate Budget Committee.

Others think it could be done, but probably won't be. "Mechanically they can get it done," says Ed Lorenzen, senior adviser to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "The bigger question is, can they decide what should be in the package?"

Dec 14, 2016|The Hill

Budget watchdogs warn of rate hike impacts on debt

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) issued a warning about the high cost of national debt interest ahead of a likely Federal Reserve rate hike Wednesday.

“Interest spending is slated to be the fastest growing part of the budget and will ultimately crowd out other important priorities,” the CRFB wrote. “Low interest rates have made the debt very manageable over the recent past, but as we’ve seen in recent weeks, interest rates have the ability to rise again quickly. It’s important to be prepared.”

Dec 14, 2016|Voice of America

US Central Bank Boosts Interest Rates

A report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says higher interest rates will increase the cost of repaying the huge U.S. government debt. CRFB says interest on the debt is the fastest growing part of Washington's budget, and boosting interest rates by one percent could add $1.5 Trillion to the debt over a decade.

Dec 14, 2016|Fox Business

Maya MacGuineas: Forget Dow 20K, Worry About Debt $20T

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said while the markets have been rallying on potential pro-growth Trump administration policies such as lower taxes and fewer regulations, she warns such changes would not have a lasting impact on the economy unless they are sustainable.

“While the Dow is approaching you know, [a] new [all-] time high, so is the debt. And if we hit $20 trillion for the total debt sometime in January, that’s going to be a huge reminder that Donald Trump is walking into office with a debt as a shared GDP, the highest that we [have] ever seen, except for [under] one other president [Truman],“  MacGuineas said during an interview on FOX Business Network Cavuto: Coast-to-Coast.

 

Dec 13, 2016|The Fiscal Times

How the GOP Could Ram Trump’s Tax Cuts Through Congress Next Year

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a prominent anti-deficit organization, has complained that Trump’s overall policy agenda is far from “fiscally responsible.” And on the subject of tax cuts in particular, “our estimate shows his tax policies would cost about $4.5 trillion over a decade.”

Dec 13, 2016|CNBC

Maya MacGuineas on CNBC: Don't Count on 4% Growth

“Projections are that the economy is going to be growing at around 2 percent, obviously we would all want it to be higher than that. But we are constrained by the real demographic shifts that are happening in this country,” said Maya MacGuineas. “Just to get to three and a half percent growth would take productivity gains that are unprecedented.”

“We want to shoot for increasing growth by half a percentage point – probably more likely than a full percentage point. If there’s more on the upside, that’s great. But let’s not count on it. We have to be cautious in what we build into our estimates.”
 

Dec 13, 2016|The Financial Times

Prepare to be surprised by the Fed in 2017

Fiscally conservative Republicans in the Congress could balk at the new president’s plans. Unfunded tax cuts and spending could push Federal debt up from 77 to 103 per cent of GDP by 2026, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, leading to financial instability and a late decade recession.

Dec 12, 2016|FX Street

The Yield That Breaks the Trump Rally's Back

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (an independent organization) estimates that Trump's tax plan will add 4.5 trillion dollars to the deficit over the next ten years. That could add an additional $450 billion to the annual red ink.

Dec 12, 2016|FX Street

The Yield That Breaks the Trump Rally's Back

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (an independent organization) estimates that Trump's tax plan will add 4.5 trillion dollars to the deficit over the next ten years. That could add an additional $450 billion to the annual red ink.

Dec 12, 2016|The Daily Signal

Trump’s ‘Penny Plan’ Could Slash Federal Spending Over Decade

While campaigning in September, Trump told the New York Economic Club, “If we save just one penny of each federal dollar spent on nondefense, and non-entitlement programs, we can save almost $1 trillion over the next decade—again this is spending that does not touch defense, and that does not touch entitlements.” 

“Trump’s version of the penny plan is actually more targeted and thoughtful because it isolates this to spending that is already being capped,” Marc Goldwein, senior vice president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told The Daily Signal. Goldwein said a one-fourth reduction in nondiscretionary spending over a decade will accumulate, even if the “penny” branding seems small.

“This will seem modest in the first years, but it will accumulate significantly,” he said. “I’m not advocating against a 25 percent reduction, but it will mean there are some nondefense discretionary programs that they’ve got to deal with.” Goldwein also said this won’t necessarily conflict with Trump’s ambitious plans for infrastructure, since most of that will be financed through highway funds.

Dec 12, 2016|Bloomberg

McConnell, Warning of ‘Dangerous’ Debt, Wants Tax Cut Offsets

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan think tank, has projected that Trump’s plans would increase the debt by $5.3 trillion over a decade, with deficits already over $600 billion a year and rising on autopilot.

Dec 11, 2016|Albuquerque Journal

Trio offers advice for Trump on federal deficit

Leon Panetta, a moderate Democrat who served as President Obama’s secretary of defense and President Bill Clinton’s White House budget director, joined former Rep. Tim Penny, D-Minn., and Mitch Daniels, a former Indiana governor and budget director under former President George W. Bush, to outline a ten-point plan for averting a looming national debt crisis. The trio presented their ideas at a luncheon hosted by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which offers non-partisan and no-nonsense analysis of the fiscal challenges our nation faces.

Dec 9, 2016|Bloomberg BNA

Hill Briefs: Hatch Thinks Big; Consumption Tax Bill Returns

Don’t bank on sustained economic growth of 4 percent, analysts at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said. “With a much slower growing labor force, achieving sustained 3.5 percent annual growth would require increasing projected productivity growth by nearly 150 percent, from 1.1 percent to about 2.6 percent per year,” the analysts said. “This level of productivity growth has not been sustained over any decade in modern history.”

Dec 8, 2016|Fox Business Network

Maya MacGuineas on Fox Business Network

"You cannot grow your away our of $20 trillion in debt or anything close to it," said Maya MacGuineas. "For the whole campaign we had a free lunch discussion as though there are no hard choices to be made. That’s just not true. We have a lot of choices we face in our budget and we’re going to have to come to terms with them. Otherwise we’ll be creating a big government debt bubble -- that would hurt the markets and that would hurt the economy." 

Dec 8, 2016|The Patriot Post

The National Debt: How America's Festering Cancer Will Affect You

As troubling as this should be to any American, the future looks even worse according to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections, as presented by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. CRFB is a nonpartisan, non-profit organization committed to educating the public on issues with significant fiscal policy impact.

To quote CRFB, “Under CBO’s current law baseline, annual deficits will return to trillion-dollar levels by 2024. Under a more pessimistic Alternative Fiscal Scenario in which policymakers fail to pay for new spending and extended tax cuts, trillion-dollar deficits return to 2021 and reach $1.5 trillion — a nominal-dollar record — by 2026.”

Dec 8, 2016|InvestmentNews

Time for a new Social Security Commission

“Now, 35 years after the Greenspan Commission was created, it is time for a new bipartisan commission focused on strengthening Social Security for current and future generations,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan public policy organization, during a Capitol Hill briefing on Wednesday.

“A commission creates an environment for compromise where a deal can be struck and where both parties can work together,” Ms. MacGuineas said. “Troublesome political and technical issues can be worked out more easily under the umbrella of political cover that a commission would provide.”

Dec 8, 2016|CNBC

The yield that would break the Trump rally’s back

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (an independent organization) estimates that Trump's tax plan will add $4.5 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years. That could add an additional $450 billion to the annual red ink.

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