Trump’s tax cuts and infrastructure spending plans would add about $6 trillion to the national debt over the coming decade, according to the independent nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Trump has presented only a rough outline of healthcare reform proposals. The plan authored by House Speaker Paul Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican, offers a more detailed framework. But neither proposal provides enough details to estimate the impact to coverage, economic growth, or the budget, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an independent nonprofit group.
The president-elect’s pledges include tax cuts and spending $500 billion or more over a decade on infrastructure. His proposals would boost the nation’s debt by $5.3 trillion, the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated.
Trump has said he wants big tax cuts and more defense and infrastructure spending, among other things. His fiscal plans are estimated to add $5.3 trillion to the debt over 10 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. That would push debt as a share of GDP to 105% by 2026, well above 86%, which is where it would be in a decade if no policies were changed.
According to data compiled by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, no president since Truman has inherited such a dire fiscal situation.
The fiscal realities of what Trump is proposing, which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns would add trillions to the national debt, are unlikely to be considered until well after Inauguration Day, probably in March, when Congress must again consider the debt ceiling.
Adding to American debt: Trump's planned tax cuts and infrastructure spending may "substantially raise the deficit," SocGen said. Trump's fiscal proposals will cause the U.S. debt to soar to 105% of GDP by 2026, compared with nearly 77% today, according to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Trump's economic plans are likely to kick inflation into high gear, and the central bank will have to react. His proposals would also boost the nation’s debt by $5.3 trillion, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
For evidence of just how significant the fiscal policy shift could be for Republicans, consider the difference between the bottom lines of Mr. Trump’s campaign platform and the most recent House-passed budget outline. His tax cuts and spending policies would add $5.3 trillion to federal deficitsprojected over 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Committeee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The House budget would reduce deficits $7 trillion, mainly through deep reductions in projected spending for entitlement programs like Medicare, which Mr. Trump has been reluctant to embrace. That is a difference of more than $12 trillion.
Will Tom Price Replace Obamacare? Donald Trump's Health & Human Services Secretary Outspokenly Opposes It
Personally, I'm not 100% convinced Trump will sign an Obamacare repeal law if Congress sends him one, because I'm not entirely sure he wants to repeal all of it. For all of the law's flaws, it has given insurance to many millions of previously-uninsured Americans, even by conservative estimates, and repealing it would kick an estimated 21 million of their coverage plans, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Congressional negotiators are relying on crude oil and Obamacare to break a year-long stalemate over how to fund the 21st Century Cures Act, a $6.8 billion package intended to boost medical research funding...
The bill would provide "dedicated funding in the future which is offset by other savings while keeping the spending subject to the oversight and review of the annual appropriations process," said Ed Lorenzen, senior adviser for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan think tank.
Lorenzen said the problem could occur after the extra money runs out in 10 years.
"Most of the offsets only achieve one-time or temporary savings, which are enough to cover the increased spending in the bill for 10 years," he said. "The bill only provides increased spending for 10 years, but the higher spending will be built into the baseline, creating pressure to continue the higher spending levels and a funding 'cliff' if it is not extended."
DEFICITS: This is the big potential showstopper for the Trump stimulus. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump’s plans would add $5.3 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade.
When it comes to the market's price-earnings multiples – currently showing shares aren't cheap – higher bond yields share a historic inverse relationship, with periods of lower inflation coinciding with higher P/Es and vice versa. The bulls would argue that stocks might continue to make gains as the impact of stronger economic growth and earnings growth offsets the negative impact of higher yields.
But according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Donald Trump's policies, that have got Wall Street so excited and the bond market so nervous, would increase US debt levels by more than $US5 trillion.
The $13.8 trillion Treasuries market suffered its worst slump since 2001 after Trump’s win, stoking worries that a persistent increase in yields could make his spending plans more costly. His proposals would boost the nation’s debt by $5.3 trillion, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
On the campaign trail, Trump talked about throwing money at roads, bridges, tunnels, airports, air traffic control and railways...But despite the political will to invest, finding the money will be challenging. Marc Goldwein, the senior policy director at the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said: “I don’t think a trillion dollars is realistic. I think it will be hard to find that many projects. Clearly there are some infrastructure needs where we should invest to create growth. But I think he will have to scale back.”
According to a recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Trump's plan as it is written would reduce revenue by $5.8 trillion and add approximately $5.3 trillion to our national debt over a 10-year period, and that probably won't sit well with many fiscally conservative Republicans.
The fiscal realities of what Trump is proposing -- which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns could double the national debt -- are unlikely to be considered until well after Inauguration Day, perhaps in March when Congress must again consider the government’s debt ceiling.
And questions remain on the ability of the Trump Administration to push their fiscal stimulus plans through the budget hawks in Congress when the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates they could double the national debt and the Federal Reserve warns of hotter inflation and faster rate hikes.
On Sunday, CBS News experienced one of our new, national rites of passage – apologizing for a tweet. The network had clipped a moment from “Face the Nation” in which Maya MacGuineas, the leader of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, insisted that “President-elect Trump is going to be inheriting the worst fiscal situation of any president… other than President Truman.”
The scorn did not stop until CBS added in MacGuineas’s qualifier: Trump would face the worst scenario “as judged by the debt relative to the economy.”
Of all the serious challenges facing this nation, the federal budget is possibly the most concerning. Within that budget, entitlements must be addressed. Of the entitlements, the health of Social Security, as highlighted by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, is of real concern.
The effects of Obamacare repeal have, rightly, received copious attention in the wake of the election...And it’s a safe bet that replacement, at least as contemplated by Republicans in Congress, will not cover anywhere near as many people as the Affordable Care Act currently does...Trump’s replacement plan, such as it is, is even worse. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates it’d spare just 1 million people who’d otherwise lose insurance through Obamacare repeal.
“The suite of policy proposals that Trump put forth would explode the debt,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which estimates Trump’s plans would add $5.3 trillion to the existing $19.5 trillion national debt. “A lot of times in campaigns candidates talk about what they would do and later turn to talking about how they would pay for it,” she added. “But because he walled off the major entitlement programs, there is nowhere to go to get the money to pay for things.”
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget puts the price of losing ObamaCare at $550 billion in the next decade.
“One of the things Donald Trump emphasized in his campaign was the risks of a $20 trillion debt and at the same time he put forth proposals that would increase the debt by another $5 trillion,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “Some changes are definitely going to have to be made. The good news is he’s shown a willingness to do that,” she added, noting that Trump downsized his tax proposal, which initially stood at $10 trillion.
Marc Goldwein, an analyst from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a public policy think tank, said Trump is likely conflicted between delivering on his campaign pledges and balancing the books. “His administration must come to the terms with reality that they’ll be entering office with the highest debt of any president other than Harry Truman, and a debt that’s growing,” Goldwein told MEE.
“They’re going to need to come to terms with that and start a push for spending reforms and tax reforms that actually reduce the debt, because right now Trump’s plan would massively explode it.”
"President-elect Trump is going to be inheriting the worst fiscal situation of any president as judged by the debt relative to the economy, other than President Truman... We looked at the proposals that he put forth during the campaign. They would, in fact, add over $5 trillion to the national debt, and that’s on top of borrowing $9 trillion that we are poised to do if we do nothing. So he has a huge challenge ahead of him." -- Maya MacGuineas
"Right now our economy is projected to grow at about 2 percent. And Donald Trump talked about growth rates of twice or three times that much. But we have a big challenge, which is changing demographics. As the baby boomers all move into retirement, in order to get those higher growth rates, you’d have to have productivity levels we’ve actually never seen in this country," said Maya MacGuineas.
"So I think one thing that’s really important here is, let’s aspire to grow the economy. You do that through tax reform, through public investments, but you also do that for paying for your proposals and controlling the debt. But let’s not wish for it and assume sort of magical numbers that are unlikely to materialize."
In September, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that Trump’s campaign pledges would add $5.3 trillion to the US national debt.
To be sure, Hillary Clinton’s dream of a spending binge on new and existing programs appears, mercifully, dead. But Donald Trump’s plan to boost spending on defense and infrastructure while slashing tax rates will soon become the governing agenda. And that agenda, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Government — a genuinely bipartisan Washington outfit — would increase federal debt over the next decade from today’s already disturbing 77 percent of gross domestic product to 105 percent, a level not seen since shortly after World War II.
The non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that over ten years the Trump plan would increase the deficit by $5.3 trillion whereas the House of Representatives' plan would lower it by $7 trillion.