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Welcome to our blog – The Bottom Line, where you’ll find up-to-date commentary and analysis on the most important news in the fiscal world. Below is a list of our blog posts.

Jul 10, 2018 | Economics

Does CBO "Expect the TCJA to Significantly Boost" the Economy in 2018?

UPDATE: The FRBSF paper has been corrected to remove the erroneous claim that CBO’s growth estimates are well in excess of theirs. The below fact...
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Budget Process Changes in the FY 2019 House Budget

The Fiscal Year 2019 House budget resolution contains a number of interesting budget process proposals. The budget passed out of committee last month...
Jul 6, 2018 | Other Spending

By 2048, Only 6% of the Budget Will Go to Children

The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) recent long-term budget outlook not only forecasts rapidly rising levels of debt but also suggests...
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Jul 3, 2018 | Social Security

CBO Projects Social Security Will Run Out of Funds in 13 Years

As we've warned many times before, Social Security is rapidly headed toward insolvency. Recent projections from CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook...
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Jul 2, 2018 | Health Care

Health Care Spending in the Long-Term Outlook

The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) long-term outlook shows debt reaching an all-time record as a share of GDP by 2034 and nearly doubling as a...
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Jun 29, 2018 | Taxes| Economics

The Deficit Is Not "Coming Down Rapidly"

This morning, White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appeared on Fox Business and made the following claim (emphasis added...
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Jun 28, 2018 | Health Care

Concerned Actuaries Group Publishes New Analyses on Health Care System’s Sustainability

Last month, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and the Concerned Actuaries Group launched the American Health Care Initiative, a...
Jun 28, 2018 | Budget Process

CBO is Pretty Good at Estimating Spending

In March 2016, CBO estimated the federal government would spend $4.06 trillion for fiscal year (FY) 2017 – a number that would increase to $4.08...
Jun 26, 2018 | Budgets & Projections

CBO Releases 2018 Long-Term Outlook

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just released its annual Long-Term Budget Outlook, which shows the United States is on an unsustainable fiscal...
Jun 21, 2018 | Budgets & Projections

How the House Could Meet the Budget Resolution's Reconciliation Instructions

The FY 2019 House budget resolution calls for $6.5 trillion of policy savings over ten years, but the true action is in the reconciliation...
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Jun 21, 2018 | Budget Process

Maya MacGuineas: Rescission Fight About Much More than a Few Billion Dollars

Maya MacGuineas is president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and head of the Campaign to Fix the Debt. She recently wrote an ...
Jun 21, 2018 | Other Spending

Did the U.S. Really Spend $7 Trillion on Middle Eastern Wars?

In a roundtable in Minnesota yesterday, President Donald Trump claimed "we have $7 trillion in the Middle East", a rephrasing of his previous claims...
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Jun 20, 2018 | Budgets & Projections

Goldman Sachs Warns that the US Fiscal Outlook is “Not Good”

In a report released last month by Goldman Sachs, Chief Economist Jan Hatzius describes the U.S. fiscal outlook as “not good.” If left unchanged...
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Jun 19, 2018 | Budgets & Projections

Summarizing the FY 2019 House Budget Resolution

House Budget Committee Chairman Steve Womack (R-AR) released his Chairman's Mark of the House FY 2019 budget resolution. The budget resolution calls...
Jun 18, 2018 | Other Spending

Options for the Pension Committee to Consider

As we recently explained, proposals from the Joint Select Committee on Solvency of Multiemployer Plans could include considerable costs. The Joint...
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Jun 15, 2018 | Taxes

After Tax Reform, Tax Expenditures Remain Costly

The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) recently released its latest tax expenditure estimates. The report shows that despite the 2017 tax law, ...
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Jun 12, 2018 | Health Care

Medicare Advantage Proposal Reforms Benefits and the Bidding Process

The Medicare Trustees recently delivered a reminder of the importance of reducing Medicare costs. As Steven M. Lieberman, Loren Adler,...
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Jun 11, 2018 | Other Spending

CRFB on Facing the Future: Federal Investment in Children is Dwindling

Children are getting an increasingly small share of the federal budget, even as we are burdening them with immense debt. In an episode of the Concord...
Jun 8, 2018 | Budgets & Projections

Gene Steuerle: Why Government Budget Estimates Are Often Wrong

Dr. Eugene (Gene) Steuerle is the Richard B. Fisher chair and Institute Fellow at the Urban Institute and a member of the Committee for a Responsible...
Jun 8, 2018 | Social Security

Marc Goldwein: As Demagogues Squawk, Clock is Ticking on Social Security

Marc Goldwein is the Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. He recently wrote an ...